The calm that prevailed in the silos of the Canary ports has begun to stir. Importers of grains in the Archipelago are closely monitoring the grain prices on the MATIF in France. In the USA, with July 2026 futures approximately at 4.34 euros per bushel, the basic raw material for Canary feed reflects a constructive trend that threatens to be passed on to the local shopping basket.
The grain market is not immune to the geopolitics being discussed these days in Brussels and Dakar. The increase in nitrogen fertilizers, with urea rising up to 60% due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, is forcing farmers to reconsider their rotations. This factor, combined with oil prices increasing shipping costs to the Canary Islands, suggests that the effective supply of the new harvest will be tighter than expected, pushing corn resistance levels close to 5.00 dollars per bushel in the short term.
Meanwhile, wheat (ZWK26) faces Holy Week at approximately 5.65 euros per bushel. This slight rise is closely watched by the Canary milling industry, which relies on a reliable and fixed-price supply to prevent bread prices from being affected by the volatility of ‘hard red winter wheat,’ which saw a drop yesterday.
Logistics and Horizons: The Risk of Freight
The ‘surface discipline’ referenced by the market in the Canary Islands—the tendency for farmers to plant less corn due to high fertilizer costs—is the major concern for port operators in the Canaries. With an 86% correlation to the bullish year of 1996, the seasonal pattern suggests that prices will continue to rise over the next month.
For a territory that imports almost all of its grain, this constructive scenario translates into an urgent need for financial coverage. At the docks, the focus is no longer solely on unloading bulk carriers but also on the evolution of a market where geopolitics and urea costs weigh more than the rain itself. The Canary Islands enter the second quarter of 2026 with the silos full but the calculator lit up in a grain market that has decided it is time to charge high again.
