Las Palmas faces a critical scenario from March 17, 2026. While the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) warns of waves of up to 5 meters and strong gusts due to the passing of storm Therese, the fuel market is experiencing an unprecedented logistical paralysis: the Strait of Gibraltar will have no supply until March 25, and prices on the South African route are skyrocketing.
With this background scenario, the end of March in Las Palmas is turning out to be extremely complex. Shipowners must deal with a storm that complicates berthing and anchoring, prices that fluctuate due to the war in the Middle East, and a fuel supply that will not normalize until the end of the month. The ‘Atlantic vocation’ of the Canary Islands, as local authorities reminded today, is again crucial, but this time in a race against time and adverse weather.
The hydrological and meteorological situation in the archipelago has taken a drastic turn that directly affects port operations. Aemet has issued an informational note alerting about the cold front associated with storm Therese, which will bring heavy rains and storms, especially to the southern and western slopes of the islands. With accumulations expected to reach up to 60 liters per square meter in 12 hours and a snow level dropping to 1,800 meters in Tenerife and La Palma, the greatest risk for bunkering lies in coastal phenomena. Waves of between 4 and 5 meters are expected, a condition that could force the suspension of supply operations at anchorage in Las Palmas, right when demand is at its peak.
This storm comes at a moment of ‘zero stock’ in neighboring nodes. In the Strait of Gibraltar, immediate supply has vanished. According to reports from traders in the sector, the earliest delivery of any type of fuel is now set for March 25. This lack of product in the Strait has shifted attention toward Las Palmas to cater to the 43 vessels scheduled to refuel in the area in the coming days. However, if storm Therese prevents the safe operation of barges, the Atlantic corridor will be virtually blocked for fleet supply.
Despite the physical product shortage, reference prices have dropped in the last day following the trend of oil futures. In Gibraltar, the price of heavy fuel oil (HSFO) has sharply decreased by $149/ton, now offering an $8/ton discount compared to Rotterdam. Meanwhile, VLSFO has decreased by $56/ton in the region. This imbalance has widened the Hi5 differential by $93/ton in just one day, resulting in a massive benefit for vessels equipped with scrubbers that manage to secure supply amidst the storm.
In contrast, the markets in West Africa and the Indian Ocean have experienced a bullish jolt. In Durban, the price of VLSFO has surged by $239/ton, a prohibitive price that pressures tankers on the Cape route to seek refueling in Las Palmas. Meanwhile, LSMGO has fallen by $115/ton in the Strait, significantly reducing its premium relative to European ports. This volatility occurs with ICE Brent trading at $104.13 per barrel, driven by the recent US attack on Kharg Island in Iran, which maintains the threat of oil reaching $200 if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
In an effort to mitigate this price crisis shaking the global market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced the record release of 400 million barrels from its strategic reserves. This move aims to cool an ‘overheating’ market due to chaos in the Middle East. The United States leads the contribution with 172 million barrels, followed by Japan with 80 million, while European powers like Germany and Austria complete the quota of 107.5 million allocated to Europe to relieve pressure on oil prices.
