On this March 3, 2026, the fuel market along the Europe-Africa axis has awakened under dual pressure: the incendiary geopolitics of the Middle East and a weather front that is strangling operations in Las Palmas and Tenerife as well as the Strait. While ICE Brent surges to $81.14 per barrel — a rise of $2.05 in just one session — the ports of Las Palmas and Santa Cruz de Tenerife emerge as critical pieces of a logistics board being forcibly shifted toward the Atlantic due to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz.
The escalating war between the US-Israel axis and Iran has triggered what analysts from ING Bank and ANZ term an ‘immediate halt’: insurers have revoked policies for transit through Hormuz, diverting global traffic to the route around the Cape of Good Hope. This paradigm shift should be a golden opportunity for the Canary hub, but the weather has chosen to complicate the scenario. In Las Palmas, winds of between 24 and 30 knots have forced the suspension of fuel supply at the outer anchorage, limiting operations to the inner port and generating waiting periods of 2 to 3 days, according to data from MH Bland.
In terms of pricing, the tension is palpable. VLSFO (very low sulfur fuel oil) has risen by $19 in Gibraltar and $10 in Durban, while in Las Palmas the lack of operational windows threatens to strain local premiums. The paradox is absolute: while the demand for bunkers seeks refuge in the Atlantic due to chaos in the Mediterranean (where Ceuta remains suspended and Algeciras accumulates delays), the response capacity of Canary ports is hindered by the weather, just as Brent heads toward alert levels due to fears of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
In the short term, operators consulted by Canarymaritime in the Canary Islands cautiously observe two opposing factors: the increase in inventories in the US (16 million barrels) and the OPEC+ agreement to raise production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. However, for shipowners operating on the West Africa route, these macroeconomic figures pale in comparison to the reality at the docks. With operations in the Mediterranean severely disrupted by bad weather and Hormuz effectively closed, the Canary Islands are preparing for a fortnight of maximum logistical pressure, where the management of the inner anchorage and the stability of LSMGO supplies will determine who survives the sudden rise in global shipping costs.
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