The global marine fuel supply map faces a severe contraction of inventories that threatens to alter the operational costs of major merchant marine routes. This saturation scenario in the continental Mediterranean positions the Port of Las Palmas in a fundamentally strategic position, although it is exposed to the same inventory tensions as its direct competitors. The availability of heavy fuel oil at the dock in the Gran Canaria capital is narrow to meet immediate demand. Financial intermediaries and Canary-based bunkering companies have raised waiting recommendations, demanding international fleets mandatory delivery times of between 7 and 10 days to guarantee the supply of any type of marine hydrocarbon at their docks. The structural scarcity of Las Palmas is directly connected to the reconfiguration of inventories on Africa’s Atlantic front, a market increasingly integrated with island logistics. In the Gulf of Guinea, commercial operators require a 10-day notice period to secure VLSFO and LSMGO supplies in Lomé (Togo), the same requirement imposed in Walvis Bay (Namibia). In Lagos, Nigeria, local oil companies manage deliveries with a 5 to 7-day margin, while in Luanda (Angola), the lack of VLSFO will force the market to wait two weeks for the arrival of new shipments. With the south of the continent pressured by the lack of quick product in Durban (South Africa) and lead times of up to 15 days in Port Louis (Mauritius), the axis that connects the Canary Islands with West Africa is consolidating as the critical corridor to sustain the resilience and supply of commercial fleets in the Atlantic. The Northwest European distribution hub, comprised of the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) axis, is recording historic lows in its independent heavy fuel oil reserves, with average volumes 15% lower than the levels of April. This drop places the region’s inventories at their lowest levels in the past decade, forcing shipowners to schedule their purchases of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) and heavy fuel oil (HSFO) with a minimum notice of ten days to secure competitive offers amid a highly restricted supply. The paralysis in the north of the continent is exacerbated by a parallel shortage of middle distillates. Independent diesel stocks in the ARA region —which include diesel and heating oil— have fallen by 6% month-on-month, marking their lowest level in two and a half years. To mitigate the marine diesel shortage (LSMGO), the European logistics center has ramped up its imports to 236,000 barrels per day in May, heavily relying on refining from the United States, which already accounts for 49% of these shipments, followed by Saudi Arabia with 15%. This extreme external dependence replicates the geographical tensions observable in northern Germany and Scandinavia, where ports such as Hamburg, Gothenburg, or the Skaw coasts require delivery times ranging from five to ten days for any type of distillate. In light of the blockade of the North Sea, the pressure of demand has immediately shifted to the Mediterranean corridor, causing an operational collapse in the Strait of Gibraltar. Congestion in the anchorages of Gibraltar and Algeciras has escalated critically due to the lack of storage space and the unavailability of supply barges, recording widespread delays of between 12 and 24 hours in fuel dispatches. About 18 container ships and bulk carriers remain anchored waiting for supply, while intermediaries demand 7 to 10-day notice periods for immediate deliveries. An identical logistical saturation hampers operations off the coast of Malta due to persistent loading delays, as well as at the port of Piraeus in Greece, where the availability of VLSFO is already deemed very limited by local operators.
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