The Canary Islands’ economy, structurally linked to import flows, closely monitors the latest data emanating from Brussels. The foreign trade statistics of goods from Spain and the EU (DataComex) confirm that the food bill continues to be, alongside energy costs, the largest capital drain for the Islands. In this context, the EU-27 forecast report for the 2025/2026 campaign presents a hopeful figure: a total production of 290.6 million tons of cereals, which is 7% above the average of the last five years.
This productive surplus on the continent is the main escape valve for prices in the Archipelago. Soft wheat, an essential component of the Canary shopping basket, leads the recovery with an estimated 135.1 million tons, a 21.7% increase compared to the previous year. For a territory that must import almost all of its flour, the strength of the harvest in key markets like France —with yields of 7.85 tons per hectare— is crucial for stabilizing industrial processing costs in the Islands’ industrial estates.
Despite the abundance in European fields, futures markets show the caution characteristic of a volatile global scenario. In last Monday’s session, milling wheat for September is priced at 207.25 euros, while corn is at 212.50 euros. These figures indicate that, while physical supply is high, logistical costs and international demand prevent a drastic drop in prices. In the Canary Islands, this stability is welcomed with relief after years of volatility that strained margins across the entire supply chain, from the importer to the end consumer.
Haricana Meeting
The product breakdown underscores the importance of diversification. Barley makes a comeback with 55.6 million tons (+14.2%), providing direct relief for the island’s livestock sector struggling against feed cost overruns. Meanwhile, oats register a growth of 15.4%, significantly above its historical average. These data suggest that the pressure on basic raw materials for animal and human food may have reached its peak, initiating a normalization path that the Archipelago needs to contain the underlying CPI.
In this price reconfiguration framework, the local industry meets its governance milestones as Harinera Canaria S.A. (Haricana) holds its Ordinary General Meeting on May 12 in the Arinaga Industrial Estate. The agenda includes the approval of the annual accounts for 2025 and the management of its Board of Directors. The meeting of the leading flour mill in the eastern province occurs at a moment of ‘technical peace’ in the source markets. The ability of the island industries to translate the improvement in the European harvest into factory gate prices will be a significant indicator for the Canary domestic economy in the second half of 2026. With European production gaining strength, the challenge for sector companies in the Canary Islands now lies in managing Atlantic logistics marked by freight uncertainty.
