The naval supply market in the Europe-Africa axis reflects this Monday the volatility of a fractured geopolitical scenario. In the logistics node of the Canary Islands and the Strait, the Hi5 differential —the gap between very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) and heavy fuel oil (HSFO)— has widened to a margin of 28.50 euros per ton in a single day. This movement responds to a drop of 21 euros in heavy fuel compared to the rise in distillates, consolidating a strategic saving for fleets equipped with scrubbers that choose Spanish docks for their bunkering. Key market indicators in euros (variation since Friday): VLSFO: Increase of 5.50 euros in Rotterdam and 7.30 euros in the Strait; LSMGO: Drastic drop of 65.30 euros in Durban; moderate rise of 11 euros in the local area; HSFO (Heavy fuel): Decrease of 21.15 euros, extending the benefit for ships with scrubbers.
The operational stability of the Canary ports contrasts with the erratic nature of other points along the route. While in Durban (South Africa) marine diesel (LSMGO) suffered a drop of 65 euros, the local market in the archipelago maintains a firm correlation with European benchmark prices. This predictability positions the islands as a supply refuge against the uncertainty in the Eastern Mediterranean, where ports like Istanbul deal with sharp price fluctuations and weather alerts for winds of up to 46 km/h.
The price of ICE Brent has risen to around 99.10 euros, driven by the collapse of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. The cancellation of the diplomatic mission of White House envoys to Islamabad has erased any expectation of thawing. This diplomatic blockage is compounded by heightened military vigilance in the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has confirmed that the blockade of vessels operating with Iran is ‘getting stronger’, a measure that keeps the risk premium at critical levels despite a slight increase in crude oil reserves in the U.S.
This context of tension in global strategic chokepoints provides a competitive advantage to the Atlantic facade. Suppliers in the Canary ports guarantee the availability of all grades of fuel at a time when logistics in the Persian Gulf becomes unpredictable. The reduction of the price premium in other hubs compared to the Canary-Gibraltar influence zone confirms a trend: shipowners seek security in supply and transparency in cost, factors that the archipelago manages to sustain even with crude hovering around the psychological barrier of 100 euros per barrel.
